Iraq and Iran cuddle up in OPEC, but for how long? - Reuters UK
VIENNA |
VIENNA (Reuters) - Historic rivals Iraq and Iran are growing closer on OPEC policy, providing a counterweight to the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia that have long dominated the cartel.
But cordial relations could grow strained later this year when Iraq vaults past Iran to become OPEC's second biggest producer after Saudi Arabia.
A bold oil expansion programme has already pushed Baghdad to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) - a level last pumped before Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 - and just a touch below Iran, where output has sunk to 20-year lows because of Western sanctions.
Size matters in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, where high production and reserves mean influence. Baghdad and Tehran sparred over OPEC quotas during the 1980s, while they fought each other in an eight-year war.
But relations have warmed since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the Shi'ite-ruled neighbours are now firmly aligned as OPEC price hawks in the same camp as Venezuela and Algeria.
That pits them against the Gulf Arab price moderates in OPEC - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
"This is a sign of the times," said Raad Alkadiri of Washington consultancy PFC Energy of Iran and Iraq. "There's been cooperation between them on oil matters for years, although they haven't been lined up together in OPEC,"
A mutual need for oil above $110 a barrel to balance their budgets is expected to prompt Iran and Iraq to call for Saudi Arabia, pumping its highest in decades, to cut back when producers meet in Vienna on Thursday.
Oil has fallen $30 since March to below $100 as oil stocks build and the economy wobbles. That falls short of the $100-$120 range that Iraqi Oil Minister and current OPEC President Abdul Kareem Luaibi says is reasonable.
"In terms of politics, it makes total sense. Everything Iraq does is driven by its internal crisis and it needs Iran's support. If Tehran asks for Baghdad's help, Iraq will deliver," said Alkadiri.
As internal foes test his survival skills, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's OPEC policy instructions to his oil minister are being driven by domestic politics.
And with its ally Syria on the brink of civil war and under Western sanctions for its nuclear programme, Iran wants to avoid instability in Iraq and is using its influence to thwart efforts to unseat Maliki.
So when Iran's Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi visited Maliki in Baghdad last week, Maliki ordered the oil ministry to adopt a unified position with Iran on OPEC production levels, say Iraqi oil sources.
That will mean Iraqi support for Iran at OPEC this week in calling for Saudi Arabia to rein in output to support prices.
IRAN, IRAQ WANT SAUDI TO CUT
Its output stymied by Western sanctions, Iran says lofty production from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates has caused prices to fall.
Tehran will be a leading voice among those calling on OPEC to cut supply back to the 30 million barrels per day ceiling agreed in December, well below current output of 31.6 million. Saudi Arabia accounts for 10 million bpd of that.
Iraq agrees that supply is too high. There is scope for the pair to build an alliance to compete with Gulf Arab producers long-accustomed to getting their way in OPEC. Iran and Iraq combined with others in OPEC a year ago when the Gulf Arabs failed to get backing to raise output.
Venezuela and Algeria, also traditional price hawks, will support calls for Saudi to cut back at this week's OPEC meeting.
But cooperation between Iraq and Iran has it limits. Rivalry is already evident in the race for OPEC's secretary-general post, where both - along with Saudi Arabia and Ecuador - are fielding contenders.
More of a threat, though, is Iraq's growing production. In April, Iraq exported more crude than in any month since it invaded Kuwait in 1990 - helping to offset the loss of supply from Iran because of sanctions.
Iraqi oil growth started in earnest in 2010, after Baghdad secured a series of service contracts with companies such as BP, Exxon Mobil, Eni and Royal Dutch Shell.
Since then production, held back by decades of wars and sanctions, has risen 600,000 bpd to 3 million bpd. Exports to world markets are now running at 2.4 to 2.5 million bpd - easily overtaking Iran's sales of around 1.6 million bpd.
By the end of the year, production too should be outpacing Iran's, down this year from 3.5 million to 3.1 million bpd, threatening to erode Tehran's role as an oil power.
"It will be an historic development that will cause friction," said Mehdi Varzi, a former official of the National Iranian Oil Co.
"Volume matters in OPEC and Iran's star will be on the decline unless measures are taken to reverse the decline in Iranian oil production," said Varzi, who now runs an energy consultancy in the UK.
IRAQ 4 MBPD BY 2014?
Iraq's oil expansion, still in its infancy, has elicited varying degrees of scorn and concern from neighbouring OPEC giants.
Western and Iraqi geologists say Iraq has enough oil in the ground to produce to its target of 12 million bpd, but infrastructure bottlenecks, red tape and a lumbering bureaucracy make that impossible by a contractual deadline of 2017.
Production of 6 million bpd - enough to put Iraq a long way ahead of all but Saudi Arabia in OPEC - could be reached by the end of the decade, some say.
"It's one issue that Saudi Arabia and Iran can agree on: Iraq's production should never get too high," says a former Iraqi oil official.
As if to prove that point - following the success of its licensing rounds, Iraq raised its estimated oil reserves to 143.1 billion barrels. A week later, Iran trumped it with a new figure of 150.31 billion barrels.
At some stage, Iraq will need to negotiate a sizable OPEC quota to reflect its potential, although Luaibi said it was not a subject for discussion yet. "Now the parameters have all changed," he said.
The quota debate will draw in Iran, which before the 1990-1991 Gulf War had parity with Iraq. Some OPEC veterans see the issue coming to a head when Iraqi output hits about 4 million bpd, on a par with Iran's theoretical full capacity.
That point could be reached in 2014 if all goes to plan. Iraqi oil officials say exports will gradually rise by up to 200,000 bpd during the second half of this year taking production to 3.2 million bpd.
Iraq's oil minister says shipments next year will rise to 2.9 million bpd - boosting production including oil used domestically to 3.4 million bpd.
Some cast doubt on whether Iraq will be able to sustain the pace given the obstacles ahead.
"Iraq and the international oil companies have done an amazing job, but Baghdad's ingenuity has its limits. It's a mug's game in the short term to bet against rising production, but a sustainable rise will be challenged by events," said Alkadiri.
But those involved in the oilfield mega-projects have faith in the qualified success of Iraq's oil development.
"The Iraqis are masters of squeezing everything out of what they have," said a senior Western oil executive.
(editing by Richard Mably)
Stone Roses Amsterdam gig ends in confusion - BBC News
Stone Roses fans were left confused after the reformed band failed to play an encore at a gig in Amsterdam on Tuesday, amid reports drummer Reni had left the venue.
Singer Ian Brown appeared on stage alone at the Heineken Music Hall, to tell the crowd the gig was over.
Fans had expected to hear I Am The Resurrection, which the reformed band closed a show with in Spain on Friday.
Brown reportedly said: "I'm not joking, the drummer's gone home."
Many of the fans present then booed the 49-year-old frontman's announcement, according to BBC journalist Peter Shuttleworth, who was at the concert.
"Ian just said something like 'Come on, get all your negative vibes out on me. I can take it'," he said.
However, Shuttleworth claims the jeers were "short-lived" and fans were "more bemused than disappointed".
He added: "People were just looking at each other thinking 'what's going on?'"
He also disputed reports that Reni - real name Alan Wren - had stormed off stage, saying that he and guitarist John Squire had hugged as they left.
The band seemed to have expressed plans to play an encore, telling fans: "If you want us to come back, we're going up four storeys, so you have to cheer loud".
'Not happy'The Stone Roses kicked off their first tour in 16 years in Barcelona last weekend. They have a summer of dates planned, including three homecoming shows in Manchester's Heaton Park at the end of June.
Fans have dismissed speculation that the gig in Holland signals problems for the rest of the tour, calling the show "quality" and the crowd "enthusiastic".
Several reports quote an insider who suggested there had been a problem with the drum kit, but this has not been confirmed.
Paul Roberts was at the gig and emailed BBC 6 Music: "At one point I saw Reni waving his arms wildly at the stage mixer, obviously not happy with something."
Another, Matt Morris, claimed Brown's announcement "was followed by a volley of beer thrown at the stage and booing".
Remaining dates on the Stone Roses tour are expected to go ahead as planned, with the band due on stage in Sweden on Thursday.
RSS chief expresses displeasure at ousting Sanjay Joshi from BJP - Hindustan Times
A senior sangh pracharak, who preferred anonymity, claimed that the recent editorial in BJP mouthpiece ‘Kamal Sandesh’ that no leader should consider oneself bigger than the party was in fact, Bhagwat’s opinion, which he is believed to have echoed before his close lieutenants. That Modi had his way on Joshi’s exit was also considered as the former’s sheer display of arrogance, driven by a clash of egos by the Sangh Parivar.
According to him, the Sangh preferred to keep mum on the whole "drama" in view of the ensuing Gujarat elections and a smooth passage for Nitin Gadkari’s re-election as party president.
Moreover, the Sangh Parivar did not want a message to be sent across that Gadkari’s re-election to the BJP top post by amending the norms in the national executive did not have a powerful leader like Modi’s approval, who also considered a face of ‘Hinduvtava’ and his ever-growing clout in the party.
Joshi, first sent to the BJP by the RSS in 1988 to use his organizational skills in building the party in Gujarat, had to leave in 2005 over a sleaze CD. After taking over as BJP president, Gadkari rehabilitated Joshi -- his childhood friend -- in view of his organizational ability and entrusted him the job of Bihar and UP elections. Joshi was also included in the national executive, which did not go down well with Modi. Joshi’s friend-turned-foe Modi refused to campaign in the UP elections for the party and unofficially boycotted the national executive. Moreover, of late, the Gujarat chief minister was not even taking Gadkari’s phone calls.
When Gadkari rang up Modi on May 23, just before the national executive at Mumbai and requested him to attend, the Gujarat chief minister laid down the condition of Joshi’s axe from the executive.
Gadkari, a darling of Bhagwat, tried to use his good offices in RSS for intervention, but in vain. The BJP president did not dare to take risk when the senior party leader Lal Krishna Advani blogged questioning his leadership and other senior party leaders including Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jetlay were hostile. He narrated the entire things before Joshi who "sacrificed" himself for his friend to pave way for Modi attending the Mumbai meet.
But as pro-Joshi posters appeared in Delhi and some places in Gujarat, Modi made a telephone call to Gadkari, asking the latter to either relieve him from his chief minister’s post or Joshi from the party. Faced with this ultimatum, Gadkari made yet another crafty move by making Joshi to resign as BJP’s election in-charge of UP.
However, the RSS headquarters claimed that Joshi would be honourably re-inducted in the organization after Gadkari’s re-election the December Gujarat elections are over this year. It was said that he would be given an important task of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh elections to be held in October next year, the pracharak claimed.
Given a belief held by section of RSS cadres, it seems that the RSS would not tolerate Modi’s arrogance for a long. The RSS, which is literally directing the BJP affairs, may take on Modi after the Gujarat polls and Gadkari’s re-election by end of this year.
The senior RSS leader and former Buddhik Pramukh of the saffron organization, MG Vaidya, said that the party is bigger than any individual. “The Modi-Joshi tussle is not good for the party,” he pointed out.
Meanwhile, neither Gadkari nor Bhagwat was available for comments. Joshi who was here to attend a meeting of RSS said that he was still in the BJP. "I have only relinquished the national executive and UP in-charge. I am still a primary member of the party," he said.
Talking to Hindustan Times, he also dismissed the rumours that he would be given the job of Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram by the RSS. Joshi met Vaidya during his Nagpur visit and had a long discussion.
Citi, JPM, SunTrust to redeem more than $15bn of TruPS - Reuters UK
NEW YORK, June 13 (IFR) - Citigroup, JP Morgan and SunTrust Bank are planning to redeem more than $15 billion of trust preferred securities next month, following the US Federal Reserve's release of new capital rules last week.
The Fed unveiled its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Basel III guidelines, confirming as expected that US banks will need to phase in core Basel III capital requirements by 2019.
The NPR is being treated by the three banks as a 'capital event' that can trigger the calls in outstanding TruPS, which will lose their Tier 1 status beginning January next year.
All three will be using cash on hand to redeem the securities.
JPM's undertaking is the largest, involving the redemption on July 12 of nine separate issues of TruPS totaling $9 billion with coupons ranging from 5.85% to 8%.
JPM has about $19.5 billion of outstanding TruPS.
The securities targeted for the July redemptions are mostly those that need a capital event in order to be called, rather than other TruPS on its books which have reached their first call date.
Citigroup is looking to take out two of its highest coupon TruPS on July 18: its 8.5% fixed-to-floating TruPS and an 8.3% issue, which will together reduce its Tier 1 non-common capital by about $4.9 billion, or 50bp.
Citigroup will pay $25 plus $0.10625 in unpaid distributions for the 8.5% TruPS and $1,000 plus $6.2250 in accumulated and unpaid distributions for the 5.85% issue.
Citi had about $15.9 billion worth of TruPS outstanding at the end of March.
SunTrust Banks, will redeem about $1.19 billion of TruPS in two issues - its 6.1% 2036s and its 7.875% 2068s. The redemptions will take place on July 11 and will be at par value.
That leaves with less than $400 million of floating-rate TruPS on its books.
Not all TruPS will be redeemed, as some of the lower coupon issues will end up staying in bank capital structures as Tier II capital or attractively-priced subordinated debt.
The loss of Tier 1 status of the roughly $86.9 billion of TruPS held by the top 25 banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, will eventually have to be replaced by non-cumulative perpetual preferreds - at the moment the only structure that qualifies as non-common Tier 1 capital.
More than $80 billion of perpetual preferreds are expected to be issued by the top 25 banks between now and the beginning of 2016, bringing the total size of the perpetual preferred market in the US to around $134.1 billion.
For other related fixed-income quotations, stories and guides to Reuters pages, please double click on the symbol:
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U.S. municipal bond market report...... (Reporting by Danielle Robinson)
King named in GB Olympics squad (From Daily Echo) - This is Southampton
Hamble's Dani King named in Great Britain Olympics squad
1:50pm Wednesday 13th June 2012 in Sport
HAMBLE’S Dani King has been named in the GB cycling squad for the London 2012 Olympics.
Along with Laura Trott, Joanna Rowsell, and Wendy Houvenaghel, she has been chosen for the endurance events.
David Millar was today named in the team alongside Sir Chris Hoy, Victoria Pendleton, Bradley Wiggins and Mark Cavendish.
The 35-year-old in 2004 was handed a two-year suspension for admitting use of banned blood booster EPO, but is now a fervent anti-doping campaigner and was last month officially cleared to compete at London 2012 after the British Olympic Association's bylaw banning drug cheats for life was revoked.
Millar is one of eight riders in the men's road squad long list but played an integral role in Cavendish's World Championships win last September and is likely to fill one of the five spots when the final team is named for the July 28 road race.
There were few surprises in the squad tasked with improving on Britain's haul of eight gold medals in Beijing.
Hoy and Pendleton, for whom the Olympics will mark the end of her career, lead the track squad, Tour de France contender Wiggins is included in the road squad and defending champion Nicole Cooke is among the women's group on the road.
Millar returns to Olympic competition for the first time since Sydney bidding to help a British squad seeking to improve on a haul of eight gold medals in Beijing four years ago.
British Cycling performance director Dave Brailsford said: "We have selected what I believe to be an excellent team going into an Olympic Games and we have a good mix of experienced Olympians alongside young riders who are making their Olympic debut.
"We still have some decisions to make, for example, the road teams will be refined in due course and who will ride in what event on the track will be determined nearer the time.
"Overall, though, the GB Cycling Team has had a strong season across all the disciplines and we are ready to step up again at the Olympics."
The track squad includes the team which scooped five gold medals from 10 Olympic events at April's Track Cycling World Championships in Melbourne.
Hoy is still to discover if he will be granted the opportunity to defend all three of the Olympic gold medals won in Beijing, with 2008 Olympic silver medallist Jason Kenny pushing the Scot hard for the one sprint place.
Hoy said: "The standard in the British Cycling team is so high and the selection process is always going to be tough, but there's a great atmosphere in the team and we just need to keep putting in the hours in training and make sure we're in the best shape possible for race day.
"This is my fourth Olympics, but my first home Games, and it's going to be an amazing experience and a once in a lifetime opportunity for all of us."
Hoy and Kenny are joined in the sprint squad by 19-year-old German-born Philip Hindes, with Olympic champions Ed Clancy and Geraint Thomas in the endurance group - for the team pursuit and omnium - alongside Steven Burke, Peter Kennaugh and Andy Tennant.
Pendleton and Jess Varnish are in the women's sprint squad.
Britain are set to take up their host nation places in the remaining two cycling disciplines, with all eyes on three-time world champion Shanaze Reade in the BMX. Liam Phillips is to be given every opportunity to prove his fitness and take the men's place after suffering a fractured collar bone at last month's Birmingham World Championships.
The mountain bike places have gone to Liam Killeen, who has recorded top-10 finishes at the last two Games, and Annie Last.
TRACK Sprint: Philip Hindes, Sir Chris Hoy, Jason Kenny, Victoria Pendleton, Jessica Varnish.
Endurance: Steven Burke, Ed Clancy, Peter Kennaugh, Andy Tennant, Geraint Thomas, Wendy Houvenaghel, Dani King, Laura Trott, Joanna Rowsell.
ROAD Men (five to be selected): Mark Cavendish, Steven Cummings, Chris Froome, Jeremy Hunt, David Millar, Ian Stannard, Ben Swift, Bradley Wiggins.
Women (four to be selected): Lizzie Armitstead, Nicole Cooke, Katie Colclough, Sharon Laws, Lucy Martin, Emma Pooley.
BMX Liam Phillips, Shanaze Reade MOUNTAIN BIKE Liam Killeen, Annie Last
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Bob Rae won't run for Liberal leadership - CBC
Bob Rae will not seek the permanent leadership of the Liberal party and will continue as interim leader until the new leader is chosen, he announced this morning.
Rae was widely expected to enter the race and to be a top contender. He told his caucus at their weekly meeting and then made the announcement in the foyer of the House of Commons.
"It hasn't been an easy decision," Rae said. The interim leader said he wrestled with the decision and received plenty of encouragement but he's decided he can best serve his party by not running.
Rae said he will remain the MP for Toronto Centre and has no plans to quit politics. The 63-year-old said he is in good health and that while there will be commentary on his health, he said that speculation would be "bullshit."
Rae's announcement came just hours ahead of a conference call scheduled for Wednesday night when the party's national executive will set the ground rules for the leadership campaign. Liberals will choose their new leader in early 2013.
When Rae took the reins from outgoing Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff last spring, he agreed that he would not seek the job permanently. There is no rule prohibiting him from entering the race, but the executive could have forced him to step down as interim leader if he had decided to run.
Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae was expected to announce Wednesday that he won't run for the federal Liberal Party's leadership. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)Rae had always said he would follow whatever rules were decided by the party and that he would wait until the rules were set before announcing his intention.
As recently as last week, sources were telling CBC News that Rae was preparing to give up the interim leadership post when the House adjourns for the summer recess at the end of June and that he would enter the race.
Rae told Evan Solomon, host of CBC News Network's Power and Politics, last week that his decision would be announced shortly after the executive's Wednesday night meeting.
"My understanding is the executive is going to be meeting next week. Once they've made their decision, you know, it'll take a few days for me to make mine," Rae told Solomon. "But it won't take long. I think things will be cleared up, you know, in June."
A person who was set to work on Bob Rae's leadership campaign told CBC News, "Meetings and calls were planned for the end of June and the first of July." The person said Rae's decision comes as a surprise and with disappointment, but the person could "appreciate where Rae is coming from."
With Rae out of the race, attention will quickly turn to who is in — and much of the focus will be on Justin Trudeau. He has said in recent days that he is facing a lot of pressure to run for the leadership.
Factors to consider
P.E.I. Liberal MP Wayne Easter said Trudeau has a few factors to consider.
"He has to look at what he can do for the country, for the party, for the nation," Easter said Wednesday morning.
"He's got the second side of the coin: he has a young family, he knows what it's like to be a son of a prime minister and what that takes away from the family in terms of a prime minister's responsibility and a leader of a party's responsibility for their party and their country.
"So he'd have to weigh all those factors …. Of course it would be a good thing for the party if [Trudeau] were to run. But there's lots of good candidates out there. He'd give it excitement. There's the heritage, there's the name, there's Justin's charisma, so all those factors."
On the way into the Liberal caucus meeting Wednesday morning, MPs Denis Coderre, Marc Garneau and Dominic LeBlanc all said they have not ruled out running for the leadership.
Dimon says losses indefensible, still reform skeptic - Reuters
WASHINGTON |
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon told lawmakers that he could not defend how a hedging strategy in a London office morphed into a multibillion-dollar trading loss, but he still took swipes at regulatory reforms that he said fail to make sense.
Dimon, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, apologized for the self-inflicted loss that he said started as a genuine hedge that would make the firm a lot of money if a credit crisis hit.
Lawmakers have questioned whether the trades, that have yielded more than $2 billion in losses so far, were truly a hedge or a speculative bet that was hidden from shareholders and regulators.
"This particular synthetic credit portfolio was intended to earn a lot of revenue if there was a crisis. I consider that a hedge," Dimon said. "What it morphed into, I will not try to defend."
Dimon also said regulators were not to blame for not detecting that the failed hedging strategy, that started in January, was blowing up. He said the bank's senior management missed it as well.
But he did say that the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial oversight law, put in place to rein in banks' risk-taking after the 2007-2009 financial crisis, created a bewildering new regulatory system.
"What we set up is a system with more and more regulators, we don't know actually know who has jurisdiction over many of the issues we are dealing with anymore," Dimon said. "I would prefer a simple, clean, strong regulatory system, with real intelligent design, but that's not what we did."
Dimon, known for smoothly navigating JPMorgan through the financial crisis, was largely treated cordially by the senators, who pressed him on why the losses occurred and what the bank is doing to make sure similar mistakes don't happen again.
He got less polite treatment from a handful of protesters who yelled out "Jamie Dimon is a crook" and "Stop foreclosures now" before being escorted out of the cavernous hearing room.
CAPITAL FORTRESS
Senators did not immediately demand that Dimon give an update on the losses in the portfolio, which JPMorgan is still unwinding. The bank is expected to give an update to shareholders when it reports its second-quarter results in mid-July.
Dimon did say that the bank's "fortress balance sheet remains intact" and that he expects the second quarter to be solidly profitable.
Democratic Senator Robert Menendez seized upon Dimon's comments and reminded him that JPMorgan received $25 billion in federal support during the financial crisis.
"I think about the fortress balance sheet you talked about and I would like to remind you that the fortress balance sheet has a moat that was dug by taxpayers... So it seems to be that the American people are a big part of making your bank healthy," Menendez said.
Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley also pointedly reminded Dimon that JPMorgan, now the nation's largest bank by assets, received Troubled Asset Relief Program assistance during the financial crisis, which provoked a testy response from Dimon.
"I think you were misinformed. I think that misinformation is leading to a lot of the problems we are having today. JPMorgan took TARP because it was asked to by the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States of America," Dimon said.
'DEAD WRONG'
Dimon revealed during a surprise conference call last month that a hedging strategy in its London office had gone awry, producing at least $2 billion, and possibly $3 billion, in trading losses.
That was after Dimon in April dismissed as a "tempest in a teapot" news reports that a trader dubbed the "London whale" in that office had amassed an outsized position that prompted hedge funds to bet against it.
Dimon said he made that statement after attorneys and others told him they thought any problems in the London Chief Investment Office were an isolated, small issue.
"When I made that statement, I was dead wrong," Dimon said.
He also addressed reports that JPMorgan changed its risk model in a way that disguised that the CIO had doubled its risk-taking.
Dimon said the new model that was put in place in January allowed the CIO unit to take more risk, and it contributed to the trading debacle. He said once the bank realized the new model did not more accurately reflect reality, it went back to the old model.
"We don't, as of today, believe it was done for nefarious purposes.
(Reporting by Dave Clarke, Alexandra Alper, David Henry and Aruna Viswanatha; Writing by Karey Wutkowski; Editing by Tim Dobbyn)
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